Bay Forecast???

[Frightnight]

Well, I do have a video, but who knows how to post it,, but anyway,,,, I have a huge complaint... Man,, the bay forecast is never right, almost never,,,it is more wrong than right, and I am sick of it, why do they do this? Is there a place to actually get a bay forecast that is better than 1/2 right, cuz NOAA, is a mess, and the idiots doing that are clowns. The predict less than 1 foot seas, and it is 3 foot seas,,, they predict 3' seas, and it is dead calm,,, today,,, "1-2' seas, and 10 - 15 knot winds,, man,, it was like 4' foot seas at times today,, chop, white caps,, real washing machine, and like 35 knots!!! Man,, they prdict a nice day on the bay, and it turns out to be, "The Perfect Storm".. man, I am sick of it. took us 2 1/2 hours to get to Portsmouth from Prov river today...... why do these idiots still have jobs, cuz you know if we were that wrong at our jobs,we would be fired...

[boogieman]

Wait ....let me see...you live in middle, trailered to prov. and fished portsmouth? And the forecast has your panties in a bunch? Man you need a gps unit...and i thought you were a "local"...
If your gonna trailer somewhere why all the way over to jamestown?

[scottw]

I think it means he got "skunked" today

I live in a house with 4 women...I'M ALWAYS WRONG !

[Pete_G]

You'll get better at "interpreting" the NOAA Narrangansett Bay and beyond forecasts with time.

Today was a classic red flag; post-cold front, WNW wind. It loves to blow and get choppy on days like that. Doesn't always, but don't be surprised when it does.

Also they mentioned "increasing late". Increasing "late" often means it will be blowing by whatever they forecasted (or more) by 10am...

[Frightnight]

You know what,,, you are all right,, well, not Boogie as usual,, first it is not NOAA I have saved in my favorites, and I thought it was so I may have been wrong there, have to check,,, Scott, I live with 3 woman, and I am always wrong too, and Boogie???? what???? Where did you get that? I launched in Portsmouth and drove to Prov, and got caughht coming back???

[boogieman]

OHHH i got it chip by drove you ment motored in the canoe....somehow my chip decoder ring was missing and i read it wrong...my bad...see i also live with women and i too am also wrong all the time!!!

[Frightnight]

So we are in agreement,,, our wifes have a goods in their purse?

[boogieman]

Ok the chip decoder ring says thatyou said
Our wives have our junk in a jar above the mantle and they lets use them when they think its safe!

[rirockhound]

Frightnight, this is not meant as an attack AT ALL, just an observation...

After ~1200 days on the bay working and fishing, (I had to add up my sea time recently) working on the bay since I was a teenager, I find it is often a case of people way overestimating the wind speed and wave heights. A true 4ft is a decent wave. Figure when you are in the trough 4ft is even with your chest, stomach, head, neck, depending on how tall you are. If someone says 5ft on the upper bay my antennas really go up. I got caught in a squall last June at Fields Point with 60kt gusts out of the south (actual measured at Conimicut Pt) and the waves never got above true 4's with an occasional 5ft. Unless you are at the mouth of one of the bays it takes a lot to get to 4 or 5ft...

I can't tell you how many times I get a call or have a discussion with someone that it was 4ft + and 25kts out there, on the same day I were out on the bay, and the heights might have been 2 w/ an occasional 3. There are places in the bay where it can steepen and stack up quick, but 4ft chop is a decent wave... Forecasted 10-15 w/ gusts to 20 and a 2-3ft chop can look and feel a lot nastier than it is. I'm not saying you are in this category, but a lot of the time, people just don't realize what those conditions actually look and feel like. I've been guilty of this myself, plenty of times!

For what it's worth, at both Conimicut Pt and Newport, and on the morning and afternoon 31st, the highest gusts recorded during the day was 25kt (I checked the tide-gauge data)

Pete is right, there are often clues to it:
Easterly, outside the bay, add them together (my grandfather taught me that) if it says 10-15, expect gusts to 25.
Behind a cold front or after a NE/SE blow, expect hard NW or if it is the first day of a warm stretch (SW), expect the wind to be higher than forecasted.
Late usually turns out to mean when there is a late morning/early afternoon tide change, for whatever reason...

Some goon wrote an article in OTW a month or so ago about using the internet to check conditions... when you get home from a snotty day, check the data, I bet you'll find it to be bad, but less than it felt out there...

[Frightnight]

Hey Rockhound
No, not taken as an attack, and I probably am in that category,, because was trying to make a point, when the say less that a foot, and it is over 2 feet and white caps? Man,,, that is not even close, and if it happend once in awile, i would understand, but man,,they are wrong, more than they are right,,,so you get a better , closer forecast if you believe the opposite they say. They have said 2 '3 foot seas, so I said, the heck with that,, then find myself driving by the water, and it is like a pond out??? Very frustrating some times, cuz I try to plan my days to fish around it if I can. As far as the day I was out,,Ok, Maybe it was not 4; ffot seas, but it was like a washing machine out there, I was like a bottle cap. I was only in a 19 1/2 foot boat, but we were going up one swell, and then it would just fall, and had two waves come over the bow, and in the boat,, so,, they were good waves for that, and we were crawling back,,,it took us 2 1/2 hours to go from Prov river to Burma road.